Forecasting the threat of Covid-19 and Ukraine war on energy security: An empirical study using ‎GARCH-TGARCH: Forecasting the threat of Covid-19 and Ukraine war on energy security: An empirical study using ‎GARCH-TGARCH

Naima BENTOUIR

Authors

Naima BENTOUIR Ain Temouchent University, Algeria https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3613-9349

Keywords:

Energy security, Ukraine war, Covid-19, forecasting volatility

Abstract

Recent developments in the oil and oil-related industries have made energy security a ‎top ‎priority. Concerns about immediate threats to economic growth as well as long-term ‎energy ‎security are sparked by high costs. To maintain the life quality for everyone in ‎the world, there ‎is a significant shared interest in ensuring that the globe can produce ‎and use energy in a ‎sustainable manner. The primary aim of the present paper is to measure ‎the impact of the dual ‎shock of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s military action in ‎Ukraine on oil and oil-related ‎products sus as Brent Crude oil, WTI crude oil, Heating ‎oil, Natural Gas, UK natural gas and ‎Gasoline. To realize our investigation daily data ‎used for the period of 1st January 2020 to 7th ‎October 2022, the selected period ‎covered both of Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine war ‎complications. The main findings ‎of the T-GARCH model state that there is a positive shock affect ‎on energy prices, particularly ‎oil prices that highly increased, followed by a notable augmentation in ‎the rest of ‎energy products during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This situation can positively affect ‎the ‎hydrocarbon revenues for oil-exporting countries, in the counterpart the importing-‎countries ‎are most suffering from the high cost. ‎

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Forecasting the threat of Covid-19 and Ukraine war on energy security: An empirical study using ‎GARCH-TGARCH